Totally Fine Foundation · Issue 005 · Fragmentation / Air War

Myanmar Civil War

Last reviewed · Totally Fine Foundation editorial desk · 11 min

Five years after the coup, Myanmar is measured in ledgers that refuse to add up — a UN-verified civilian death floor, a media-report tally five times larger, three displacement counts, and a case archive built for trials that have not happened. More than 1,200 armed groups make it the world's most fragmented war, and access is so thin that every number is a floor.

Metrics

The war that will not be totalled.

Two ledgers of the dead, and why they will not add up

Myanmar keeps its death toll in two registers, and the discipline is to keep them apart. In February 2026, five years after the coup, OHCHR told the Human Rights Council that credible sources had verified the killing of more than 7,700 civilians — more than 1,650 women and more than 1,000 among them children — and added, in the same breath, that the real number is likely much higher. That clause is the whole method: OHCHR vouches only for what it can corroborate, and corroboration in Myanmar is thin.

The other register is ACLED's. Reading media reports of violence, the monitor logged 100,114 conflict-related fatalities since the coup, a threshold it crossed around 1 July 2026. The two are not the same number counted twice: OHCHR verifies civilian deaths and stops where the evidence stops; ACLED tallies all conflict-related fatalities from open reporting and warns such counts are frequently the most biased and poorly reported component of conflict data. Both are floors. This dossier publishes neither as the war's total, because no such total exists.

Sources: OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup; ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger

A war with more than a thousand sides

The shorthand of government versus rebels does not fit this war, and the data is what breaks it. ACLED has registered more than 1,200 distinct armed groups and calls it quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition. Three blocs sit inside that count: the State Administration Council military, which seized power on 1 February 2021 under Min Aung Hlaing and holds the state, the air force and much of the centre; the National Unity Government, formed that April by ousted lawmakers, waging what it calls a defensive war through its People's Defence Forces; and a mosaic of ethnic armed organisations, some older than the coup by decades, holding the edges.

In October 2023 the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027, the gravest military challenge the junta had faced. The International Crisis Group reads the country exactly this way — a military clinging to the centre, a parallel government, and numerous ethnic armies that coordinate with but do not answer to it — rather than as a two-sided fight. The fragmentation is not a detail. It is why the war is hard to see, hard to count, and hard to end.

Sources: ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger; International Crisis Group — Myanmar analysis hub

The air war, and how it is measured

Whatever the total, the direction of the violence is documented, and it points overwhelmingly at the military. ACLED found military airstrike events targeting civilians more than tripled — from 253 in 2023 to 776 in 2024 — and recorded 118 incidents of military mass killing in 2024. By its coding the military was responsible for 76 per cent of incidents targeting civilians that year, up from 68 per cent; the remainder belongs to resistance and ethnic forces, and is attributed to them, not erased.

OHCHR puts calendar-year figures on the same campaign: at least 982 civilians killed by airstrikes in 2025 and at least 287 children — the deadliest year for children since the coup. Amnesty traced the campaign through its fuel, reporting at least 109,604 metric tonnes of aviation fuel imported in 2025, a 69 per cent jump. The single worst documented strike came on 10 December 2025, when the military bombed the general hospital in Mrauk-U; OHCHR recorded at least 33 killed in what it called an apparently deliberate strike, quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition.

Sources: ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger; OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup; Amnesty International — Country hub and coup-anniversary reporting

The ledger that shrank

OCHA reads the war as a humanitarian accountant, and its 2026 plan is a study in a floor sinking below the need. It counts more than 16 million people requiring life-saving assistance, five million of them children — 16.2 million in the plan document, more than 45 per cent of the population within the area it analysed. Against that, the plan reaches for only 4.9 million of the most vulnerable, a steep contraction from the 6.7 million targeted in 2025, which OCHA attributes to hard decisions and revised analyses, rather than an improvement on the ground.

The money tells the same story: a US$890 million appeal, down from US$1.4 billion in 2025, after a year barely a quarter funded. Layered over all of it is a shock the war did not cause. On 28 March 2025 a magnitude-7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar; OCHA counts around two million people newly affected and nearly 70 health facilities damaged, on top of the conflict caseload. The quake is a compounding disaster, not the war's origin — and its relief was shaped by the war, with monitors reporting the military obstructed aid to opposition areas and kept bombing.

Sources: UN OCHA — Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026; UN OCHA — Country dashboard and Humanitarian Update no. 51

Detention, the Rohingya, and what the law can reach

The war's other ledger is kept in cells and case files. OHCHR records some 30,000 people arrested since the coup and nearly 23,000 still detained; Amnesty and Human Rights Watch, citing the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, report that more than 2,200 have reportedly died in custody, a figure flagged as likely higher. The naming of crimes is left to the bodies entitled to do it: the IIMM preserves an archive of more than 1,300 sources and almost 600 eyewitness testimonies, but convicts no one, and the one warrant application against the junta's commander — the ICC prosecutor's November 2024 request over the 2017 crimes against the Rohingya — reaches back before this war.

One population sits at the sharp end of this war and an older one. About 600,000 Rohingya remain in Rakhine under what Human Rights Watch calls a system of apartheid and persecution, while nearly a million more live in Bangladesh camps. The danger now comes from more than one direction: HRW documents the Arakan Army, itself fighting the junta, imposing forced labour and detention on Rohingya after taking Maungdaw. This is context carried with attribution, not a verdict — and conduct is not symmetrical: the evidence attributes the overwhelming bulk of documented atrocities to the military, while recording, actor by actor, that some anti-junta and ethnic forces have harmed civilians too.

Sources: OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup; United Nations (IIMM) — Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar — annual report; Human Rights Watch — Myanmar (Burma) country reporting

Refugee routes and host-country data

According to the material attributed to UNHCR, a route-based snapshot of data and trends for refugees from Myanmar as of the end of July 2026 reportedly concerns Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, and reportedly includes an attached infographic with the referenced data and trends.

Sources: OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup

Claims and evidence

The military seized power to correct massive 2020 election fraud and is restoring order and democracy.

Claimant: State Administration Council / Myanmar military

Evidence status: disputed

Counterclaim: The military alleged 8.6 million irregularities but presented no evidence; no credible body substantiated systemic fraud.

Independent assessment: False: the 2020 NLD win was large and unsubstantiated as fraudulent, and 'restoring order' is contradicted by ~100,114 killed (ACLED) / 7,700+ verified civilians (OHCHR), ~3.6 million displaced, and a junta that controls only part of the country.

Sources: ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger; OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup

The December 2025 three-phase election is a legitimate step toward civilian democratic government.

Claimant: State Administration Council

Evidence status: disputed

Counterclaim: The NLD is banned, Aung San Suu Kyi jailed, media unfree, criticism criminalised, and voting could not occur across large contested areas.

Independent assessment: Disputed on a free-and-fair standard: observers called it a sham, and more than 400 were prosecuted under an 'election protection' law.

Sources: Amnesty International — Country hub and coup-anniversary reporting

The March 2025 earthquake was a natural disaster separate from the war, and relief was impartial.

Claimant: State Administration Council framing

Evidence status: disputed

Counterclaim: The quake was natural, but its humanitarian outcome was conflict-shaped.

Independent assessment: Disputed: the UN Special Rapporteur reported many reports of the military preventing aid, and HRW says the military obstructed lifesaving services in opposition areas and carried out 550+ attacks in the two months after.

Sources: Human Rights Watch — Myanmar (Burma) country reporting; UN OCHA — Country dashboard and Humanitarian Update no. 51

Anti-junta resistance forces uniformly protect civilians.

Claimant: Broad pro-resistance framing

Evidence status: disputed

Counterclaim: Assess actor by actor: some anti-junta groups are documented harming civilians.

Independent assessment: Disputed: most anti-junta violence is far smaller in scale than military atrocities, but real — the US State Department and OHCHR recorded killings, torture and sexual violence by some groups, and HRW documents the Arakan Army oppressing Rohingya.

Sources: Human Rights Watch — Myanmar (Burma) country reporting; ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger

Timeline

  1. — Military coup: Tatmadaw seizes power, arrests Aung San Suu Kyi

    Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) overthrew the elected government in a coup on February 1, 2021, arresting State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other elected officials. Nationwide civil disobedience and protests followed, met with violent crackdowns.

    Sources: ACLED — Myanmar — ACLED Conflict Tracker

  2. — Operation 1027 launched — major resistance offensive begins

    The Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA, AA) launched Operation 1027, capturing dozens of military outposts and border trade towns in northern Shan State within weeks. The offensive marked a significant shift in the balance of the conflict.

    Sources: ACLED — Myanmar — ACLED Conflict Tracker; International Crisis Group — Myanmar Crisis — International Crisis Group

  3. — Lashio falls to MNDAA — Shan State capital captured for first time in history

    The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State and the headquarters of the junta's Northeastern Command, marking the first time an ethnic armed organization captured a regional military command HQ since independence.

    Sources: ACLED — Myanmar — ACLED Conflict Tracker; UNOCHA — Myanmar Humanitarian Update — UNOCHA

  4. — Humanitarian organizations report 76 access incidents in July 2026

    Humanitarian organizations reported 76 incidents across 10 states and regions in July 2026 that hindered delivery of life-saving assistance to approximately 200,000 shock-affected people. The total was 27 percent below the previous month and 24 percent below the 2026 monthly average, the lowest since January 2026, according to the organizations. Rakhine accounted for 42 percent of reported constraints, followed by Sagaing at 14 percent and northern Shan at 9 percent; conflict-related insecurity remained the primary impediment. Humanitarian organizations said the decrease may partly reflect reduced humanitarian movement during the monsoon season, particularly in flood-affected areas.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-08)

  5. — Republic of Korea announced USD 5 million for WFP food assistance in Myanmar

    According to the August 20, 2026 WFP report carried by ReliefWeb, the Republic of Korea announced an additional USD 5 million contribution to WFP for food and nutrition assistance in Myanmar. The report said the funding is intended to support REACH Phase 2, under which WFP plans relief food assistance for 140,000 people and nutrition support for 15,000 children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women. The report said WFP analysis projected that up to 5 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity if elevated food and fuel prices persist.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-08)

  6. — UNHCR-attributed route-based snapshot of Myanmar refugee data and trends as of end-July 2026

    According to the material attributed to UNHCR, a route-based snapshot of data and trends for refugees from Myanmar as of the end of July 2026 reportedly concerns Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, and reportedly includes an attached infographic.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-08)

  7. — UNHCR reportedly publishes Myanmar internal displacement infographic

    UNHCR reportedly published an infographic on the number of internally displaced people in Myanmar as of 21 September 2026; a regional version reportedly covers Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-10)

  8. — Health Cluster reaches almost 690,000 people in 227 townships

    According to the Myanmar Health Cluster bulletin published 30 Oct 2026, almost 690,000 people were reached with life-saving health services in 227 townships between 1 July and 30 September 2026, with an additional 126,000 reached in townships excluded from the 2026 HNRP.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-10)

  9. — Health Cluster reports declining cholera/AWD cases; OCV campaigns in Yangon and Sittwe

    Per the Health Cluster bulletin published 30 Oct 2026, cholera/AWD cases showed a decreasing trend despite ongoing rains; 1.4 million OCV doses were administered in downtown Yangon townships; and the Sittwe campaign was severely hampered by fighting, with 74% of 300,000 doses administered.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-10)

  10. — Floods reportedly raise malaria and dengue cases; health partners report supply shortages

    According to the Health Cluster bulletin published 30 Oct 2026, widespread flooding and landslides in Ayeyarwady, Tanintharyi and Yangon reportedly caused displacement and damage and raised landmine risk from displaced ordnance. Floods reportedly increased malaria and dengue cases in endemic areas of Karenni, Tanintharyi, Kachin, Chin and Sagaing. Health partners reported severe shortages of supplies, especially bednets, per the same bulletin.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-10)

  11. — Insecurity Insight counts 118 attacks on health care, Jan–Oct 2026

    According to Insecurity Insight, 118 attacks on health care were reported in Myanmar between 1 January and 30 October 2026. Most 2026 attacks were reportedly recorded in Sagaing, followed by Rakhine.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-10)

  12. — Reported ReliefWeb posting of UNHCR infographic on Myanmar internal displacement

    A UNHCR infographic on internally displaced people in Myanmar, with data reported as of 26 October 2026, appears to have been posted on ReliefWeb on 5 November 2026.

    Sources: ReliefWeb (OCHA) — ReliefWeb reports ingested by editorial pipeline (2026-11)

Open questions

  • How many people has the war killed? OHCHR has verified more than 7,700 civilian deaths; ACLED counts 100,114 fatalities from media reports, by a different method.
  • Will the December 2025 election lead to a civilian democratic government, as the military says?
  • Was relief after the March 2025 earthquake impartial, as the military says?
  • Do the anti-junta resistance forces protect civilians, or have some of them committed abuses too?

Source registry

  1. OHCHR — Statement to the Human Rights Council, five years after the coup; human_rights; 2026-02-01
  2. ACLED — Conflict Index and post-coup fatality ledger; research; 2026-07-01
  3. UN OCHA — Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026; humanitarian; 2025-12-10
  4. UN OCHA — Country dashboard and Humanitarian Update no. 51; humanitarian; 2026-03-09
  5. UNHCR — Myanmar Emergency / Operational Data Portal; humanitarian; 2026-06-08
  6. United Nations (IIMM) — Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar — annual report; primary_document; 2025-08-12
  7. Amnesty International — Country hub and coup-anniversary reporting; human_rights; 2026-01-25
  8. Human Rights Watch — Myanmar (Burma) country reporting; human_rights; 2026-01-28
  9. International Crisis Group — Myanmar analysis hub; research; 2026-01-01

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