# Strait of Hormuz Standoff - Canonical dossier: [Web edition]() - Markdown edition: [Plain-text edition]() - Issue: Issue 011 - Rubric: Chokepoint / Escalation - Byline: Totally Fine Foundation editorial desk - Reading time: 9 min - Last reviewed: 2026-10-20 > The war that began on 28 February 2026 has kept the Strait of Hormuz contested for almost eight months. On 1 September US officials said a military escort took 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the strait, a wartime high; the analytics firm Kpler counted 11 crossings that day. Attacks on shipping rose again in October: UKMTO reported at least 12 ships attacked in the week to 16 October, and by 20 October the IMO's register counted 116 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarers killed since 28 February. The IMO says around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped in the region, the figure it gave on 28 August, when it said up to 400 ships could not leave the Persian Gulf safely. Washington and Tehran each say the strait is under their control. ## Cover - Kicker: Field dossier / MENA / maritime security - Cover lines: 1 September: US officials report 40 escorted vessels and 18 million barrels; Kpler counted 11 crossings that day / At least 12 ships attacked in a single week in October, UKMTO says — and most targeted ships do not report / IMO: 116 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarers killed by 20 October / Around 6,000 seafarers still trapped, the IMO Secretary-General said on 18 October / Oil through the strait at about 68 per cent of Kpler's pre-war baseline in the week to 13 October / Washington and Tehran each say the strait is theirs #### Hero visual provenance - Caption: NASA image of Qeshm Island, using data provided courtesy of the University of Maryland’s Global Land Cover Facility. The island sits near the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. and Iranian control claims collided in 2026. - Alt text: Satellite image of Qeshm Island, Iran, using NASA data. - Credit: NASA image using data provided courtesy of the University of Maryland’s Global Land Cover Facility - Rights / license: Public domain - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ## Metrics ### 40 commercial vessels — Escorted commercial vessels on 1 September 2026 - Category: shipping / military escort - Caveat: US officials via CNN; a US claim. The analytics firm Kpler counted 11 vessels crossing the strait that day and a 10-day average of 13 a day, according to Al Jazeera. **Source trail:** [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`); [timesnownews.com — US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels through Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-timesnownews-com`) ### about 18 million barrels — Oil carried in the 1 September escort - Category: shipping / oil flow - Caveat: US officials via CNN, which put pre-war flows at roughly 20 million barrels a day. On 13 October CENTCOM said US forces had helped move more than 19 million barrels on 12 October. US military figures, not independent measurements. **Source trail:** [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [timesnownews.com — US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels through Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-timesnownews-com`); [iranintl.com — CENTCOM says US helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz Monday]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-2026-10-13`) ### 11.6 million barrels a day — Oil flow through the strait, week to 13 October 2026 - Category: shipping / oil flow - Caveat: Kpler via Al Jazeera, about 68% of Kpler's 17.1 million b/d pre-war baseline. The EIA's pre-war baseline is 20.9 million b/d (first half of 2025); the IEA estimates September flows at 10.9 mb/d. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [eia.gov — EIA: World Oil Transit Chokepoints]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-eia-chokepoints`); [iea.org — Oil Market Report - October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iea-omr-2026-10`) ### up to 400 ships — Ships unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely - Category: shipping / seafarer safety - Caveat: IMO Secretary-General, 28 August 2026; no later IMO ship count was found in the sources reviewed. JMIC counted about 432 vessels at three anchorage areas on 15 October — a congestion figure, not the same measure. **Source trail:** [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### around 6,000 seafarers — Seafarers trapped in the region - Category: shipping / seafarer safety - Caveat: IMO: given in July, repeated on 28 August with the 400-ship estimate, and again by the Secretary-General on 18 October. The IMO is monitoring more than 20,000 seafarers in the region; its plan to evacuate about 6,000 is paused. **Source trail:** [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`); [imo.org — Update to the Council (C 137) - Protection of vital shipping lanes]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-council-137`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`); [imo.org — IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026)]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20`) ### 116 incidents — Confirmed incidents involving shipping - Category: shipping / attacks - Caveat: IMO register as at 20 October 2026, cumulative for the conflict that began on 28 February, with 24 confirmed seafarer fatalities. Earlier IMO counts differ in scope: 80 verified attacks in and around the strait on 16 September, and 100 confirmed incidents across the region on 9 October (via Fox News). A confirmed minimum. **Source trail:** [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`); [imo.org — Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-sg-2026-09-16`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`) ### at least 12 ships — Ships attacked in one week - Category: shipping / attacks - Caveat: UKMTO, week ending 16 October 2026; at least a dozen were also attacked in the week to 5 October, per Al Jazeera. UKMTO says most targeted vessels do not submit reports, so the true number is unknown. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`) ## The Strait of Two Claims: Hormuz in the Eighth Month of War ### September: tit-for-tat attacks on tankers escalate In the first week of September 2026 the attacks on tankers escalated. In the 24 hours to 6 September the United States targeted three Iranian oil tankers and Iran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile toward US warships, Al Jazeera reported. On 8 September CENTCOM said it had struck and destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island; Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the strait and fired missiles at US forces at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan. By 16 September the IMO had verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels in and around the strait, with at least 22 seafarers killed. Diplomacy stalled: Iran's foreign minister said Tehran had conveyed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait through Qatar, and President Trump rejected it the next day. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-06`); [aljazeera.com — US strikes five Iranian oil tankers, as Iran attacks 10 ships, Jordan base]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-09`); [imo.org — Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-sg-2026-09-16`); [kuow.org (NPR) — Trump calls Iranian plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz not 'acceptable']() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-npr-2026-09-26`); [parsi.euronews.com — Tehran and Washington Return to a Cycle of Tension in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-parsi-euronews-com`); [rfi.fr — RFI Report on Reciprocal Vessel Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-rfi-fr`) ### October: the worst weeks for shipping At least a dozen ships were attacked in the week to 5 October, the highest number since the war began, Al Jazeera reported; UKMTO counted at least 12 more in the week to 16 October and says most targeted vessels do not report attacks. On 13 October the container ship GFS Pride was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait; it caught fire, drifted and sank on 14 October, JMIC says. The US military said it was hit by an IRGC projectile; the IRGC said it struck a naval mine, a claim JMIC says has no substantiation. By 20 October the IMO's register counted 116 confirmed incidents across the region during the conflict that began on 28 February, and 24 seafarer fatalities. On 15 October the Joint Maritime Information Center kept the threat level in the strait at SEVERE, with deliberate hostile action considered highly likely. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`); [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### How much oil is moving, and whose count to trust The flow figures depend on who counts. US officials said 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels passed under escort on 1 September; Kpler counted 11 crossings that day. On 13 October CENTCOM said more than 19 million barrels had moved with US help on 12 October, and on 16 October its commander said about 400 merchant ships had transited in the preceding seven days, without giving dates. UKMTO's combined count for the seven days to 14 October was 254 transits, but only 42 were visible on AIS; the rest are US-stated figures, which UKMTO says it cannot independently verify. JMIC said on 15 October that independent tracking showed single-digit numbers transiting in each direction, against about 30 a day in US data. Independent data swing sharply: Kpler recorded nearly 20.8 million barrels on 8 October and 2.9 million on 11 October, and an average of 11.6 million barrels a day in the week to 13 October — about 68 per cent of its 17.1 million pre-war baseline. Baselines differ too: the EIA puts pre-war flows at 20.9 million barrels a day. For September, the IEA estimates flows at 10.9 mb/d. **Source trail:** [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`); [iranintl.com — CENTCOM says US helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz Monday]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-2026-10-13`); [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`); [aljazeera.com — Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14`); [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [eia.gov — EIA: World Oil Transit Chokepoints]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-eia-chokepoints`); [iea.org — Oil Market Report - October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iea-omr-2026-10`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### The ships and seafarers who cannot leave On 28 August the IMO Secretary-General said up to 400 ships carrying around 6,000 seafarers had been unable to leave the Persian Gulf safely since the conflict began. The 6,000 figure already appears in his July update to the IMO Council, after an IMO evacuation framework had moved 136 vessels with 2,900 seafarers through alternative routes. He repeated it on 18 October, warning of a double blockade. The IMO now says it is monitoring more than 20,000 seafarers in the region, and that its plan to evacuate around 6,000 is paused. No later IMO count of stranded ships was found in the sources reviewed; JMIC's count of about 432 vessels at anchor off the UAE and Oman on 15 October measures congestion, not ships unable to leave. **Source trail:** [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`); [imo.org — Update to the Council (C 137) - Protection of vital shipping lanes]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-council-137`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`); [imo.org — IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026)]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### The blockade, then and now In April 2026 President Trump announced a 'quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition'; within a day CENTCOM restated it as a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas, with traffic to and from non-Iranian ports excluded. The blockade was reimposed in mid-July. Since then, CENTCOM says, its forces have disabled four commercial vessels, turned around 135 ships and destroyed 10 tankers linked with Iran, and JMIC reports it still enforced near the approaches to Iranian ports in October. Iran's public position stayed conditional. On 4 October Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait would not open until Iran's seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum were met, and Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said on the night of 11 October that the strait is under Iran's control. **Source trail:** [opiniojuris.org — A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org`); [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`); [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04`); [aljazeera.com — Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14`) ## Actors and positions ### United States / U.S. military - Role: Belligerent and escorting power - Confidence: high - Position: Says the strait is controlled by the United States and its regional partners and open for business; escorts commercial traffic and enforces a blockade of Iranian ports. - Supporter framing: US officials present escorts and transit totals as proof that the strait is open: 40 ships on 1 September, about 400 in the seven days before 16 October. - Opposing account: Iran says the strait is under its control and has made reopening conditional on its demands. - Independent assessment: UKMTO counts far fewer AIS-visible transits than US totals and cannot verify the US-facilitated figures; the IMO had confirmed 116 incidents by 20 October. **Source trail:** [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`); [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`); [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`) ### Iran - Role: Belligerent and claimant of control - Confidence: high - Position: Claims control of the strait; in early September said it was closed except to pre-approved vessels using its designated channels, and in October tied reopening to seven conditions. - Supporter framing: Iranian officials say Iran manages the strait and frame strikes on shipping as targeting a US-backed shuttle system. - Opposing account: The United States says the strait is under US and partner control and open. - Independent assessment: UKMTO's combined transit count, US-stated figures included, was about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels in mid-October, and attacks rose in October; neither side's description is confirmed by the traffic data. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`); [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04`); [aljazeera.com — Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14`); [khabaronline.ir — Iranian Armed Forces Statement on Managing the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-khabaronline-ir`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`); [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`) ### International Maritime Organization (IMO) - Role: UN specialized agency and monitor - Confidence: high - Position: Counts confirmed incidents and seafarer deaths, and calls for attacks on ships and seafarers to stop. - Supporter framing: The IMO Secretary-General describes a double blockade and seafarers trapped since the conflict began. - Opposing account: Neither the United States nor Iran disputes the IMO's figures in the sources reviewed. - Independent assessment: IMO counts are confirmed minimums; its stranded-ship estimate dates from 28 August. **Source trail:** [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`); [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`); [imo.org — IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026)]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`) ### CENTCOM / U.S. Central Command - Role: U.S. military command - Confidence: medium - Position: Describes the US operation as a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas, reimposed in mid-July, alongside escorts of Gulf partners' oil. - Supporter framing: CENTCOM presents daily oil volumes and transits as evidence of control. - Opposing account: Iran frames US operations as a blockade and an act of war. - Independent assessment: CENTCOM's volume and transit figures are its own; Kpler and UKMTO record lower and more volatile numbers. **Source trail:** [opiniojuris.org — A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org`); [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [iranintl.com — CENTCOM says US helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz Monday]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-2026-10-13`); [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`) ## Claims and evidence ### The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and its partners and remains open for business. - Claimant: US Central Command (Adm. Brad Cooper, 16 October 2026) - Evidence status: disputed - Counterclaim: Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, says the strait is under Iran's control; in early September Iran said it was closed except to pre-approved vessels using its designated channels. - Independent assessment: Neither claim describes the traffic. UKMTO's combined count for the week was 254 transits, about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels, but only 42 were visible on AIS; the rest are US-stated figures that UKMTO cannot independently verify. JMIC said on 15 October that independent tracking showed single-digit numbers transiting in each direction, against about 30 a day in US data, and kept the threat level at SEVERE. **Source trail:** [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`); [aljazeera.com — Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`); [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`) ### Forty commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US escort on 1 September 2026. - Claimant: US officials, as reported by CNN - Evidence status: disputed - Counterclaim: The analytics firm Kpler counted 11 vessels crossing the strait that day. - Independent assessment: Al Jazeera reports that tracking data do not match the US figure. A US official told CNN that most if not all of the 40 vessels had turned off their transponders to avoid detection, and an analyst quoted by Al Jazeera says a US operational count may include naval auxiliaries, tugs and small craft that Kpler filters out. UKMTO notes that US-facilitated transit figures include ships not broadcasting on AIS and cannot be independently verified. **Source trail:** [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`) ### Around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped in the region. - Claimant: International Maritime Organization - Evidence status: likely - Counterclaim: No dispute of the figure was found in the sources reviewed; the IMO itself says it is monitoring more than 20,000 seafarers in the region. - Independent assessment: The 6,000 figure has been repeated since July, with no revision found in the sources reviewed, and the IMO's ship count dates from 28 August. Treat it as the IMO's standing estimate. **Source trail:** [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`); [imo.org — Update to the Council (C 137) - Protection of vital shipping lanes]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-council-137`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`); [imo.org — IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026)]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20`) ### The US operation is a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas, not of the strait itself. - Claimant: CENTCOM and legal analysts - Evidence status: confirmed - Counterclaim: President Trump announced a 'quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition' in April 2026. - Independent assessment: CENTCOM narrowed the April announcement within a day; the blockade was reimposed in mid-July and JMIC reports it enforced near the approaches to Iranian ports in October. **Source trail:** [opiniojuris.org — A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org`); [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### Iran offered a plan to reopen the strait. - Claimant: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi - Evidence status: confirmed - Counterclaim: President Trump rejected the seven-day plan; on 4 October Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait would not open until Iran's seven conditions were met. - Independent assessment: NPR quotes Araghchi: "If the necessary conditions are met, the strait can be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days." On 4 October Ghalibaf said the strait will not open until Iran's seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met. Both frame reopening as conditional, not imminent. **Source trail:** [kuow.org (NPR) — Trump calls Iranian plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz not 'acceptable']() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-npr-2026-09-26`); [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04`) ## Language record ### Donald Trump - Role: President of the United States - Context: Announced on Truth Social on 12 April 2026, as reported by Opinio Juris; CENTCOM later restated the operation in narrower terms. Quotation text is available in the web edition and the cited original source; it is not republished in this machine-readable edition. **Source:** [opiniojuris.org — A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org`) ### Adm. Brad Cooper - Role: Commander, U.S. Central Command - Context: Video statement, reported by gCaptain on 16 October 2026. Quotation text is available in the web edition and the cited original source; it is not republished in this machine-readable edition. **Source:** [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`) ### Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Role: Iranian official - Context: Reported by Al Jazeera on 4 October 2026, citing the state-linked news agency Nournews. Quotation text is available in the web edition and the cited original source; it is not republished in this machine-readable edition. **Source:** [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04`) ### Arsenio Dominguez - Role: IMO Secretary-General - Context: Remarks reported by Fox News on 18 October 2026. Quotation text is available in the web edition and the cited original source; it is not republished in this machine-readable edition. **Source:** [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-28 — IMO reports up to 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers unable to depart Persian Gulf safely - Event type: humanitarian\_access - Confidence: medium As of August 28, 2026, up to 400 ships carrying around 6,000 seafarers had reportedly been unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely since the conflict began, according to the International Maritime Organization. **Source trail:** [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org`) ### 2026-09-01 — US officials report escort of 40 commercial vessels through the strait - Event type: international\_response - Confidence: medium US officials said a military escort took 40 commercial vessels carrying about 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on 1 September 2026, according to CNN; the analytics firm Kpler counted 11 crossings that day. **Source trail:** [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02`); [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com`); [timesnownews.com — US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels through Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-timesnownews-com`) ### 2026-09-06 — US and Iran escalate attacks on tankers around the strait - Event type: conflict\_escalation - Confidence: high In the 24 hours to 6 September the United States targeted three Iranian oil tankers and Iran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile toward US warships near the strait, Al Jazeera reported. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-06`); [parsi.euronews.com — Tehran and Washington Return to a Cycle of Tension in the Strait of Hormuz]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-parsi-euronews-com`) ### 2026-09-09 — US says it destroyed five Iranian tankers; Iran says it attacked 10 ships - Event type: conflict\_escalation - Confidence: medium CENTCOM said it had struck and destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island; Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the strait and fired missiles at US forces at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US strikes five Iranian oil tankers, as Iran attacks 10 ships, Jordan base]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-09`) ### 2026-09-16 — IMO verifies 80 attacks on merchant vessels - Event type: casualty\_update - Confidence: high The IMO Secretary-General said the organization had verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels in and around the strait, resulting in at least 22 seafarer deaths. **Source trail:** [imo.org — Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-sg-2026-09-16`) ### 2026-09-26 — Trump rejects Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the strait - Event type: international\_response - Confidence: high Iran's foreign minister said Tehran had conveyed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait through Qatar; President Trump rejected it. **Source trail:** [kuow.org (NPR) — Trump calls Iranian plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz not 'acceptable']() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-npr-2026-09-26`) ### 2026-10-04 — Iran says the strait will not open until its seven conditions are met - Event type: conflict\_escalation - Confidence: high Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would not open until Iran's seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum were met. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04`) ### 2026-10-05 — At least a dozen ships attacked in a week, a wartime high - Event type: conflict\_escalation - Confidence: medium At least a dozen ships were attacked in the week ending on 5 October, the highest number since the war began, Al Jazeera reported. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11`) ### 2026-10-14 — Container ship GFS Pride is hit and sinks in the strait - Event type: casualty\_update - Confidence: high The container ship GFS Pride was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October and sank on 14 October, JMIC reports. The US military said it was hit by an IRGC projectile; the IRGC said it struck a naval mine, a claim JMIC says has no substantiation. **Source trail:** [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`); [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105`) ### 2026-10-16 — UKMTO reports at least 12 ships attacked in a week - Event type: conflict\_escalation - Confidence: high UKMTO reported at least 12 ships attacked in the week ending on 16 October and said most targeted vessels do not report; its combined count was 254 transits, only 42 of them visible on AIS, the rest US-stated figures it cannot verify. **Source trail:** [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17`); [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16`); [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16`) ### 2026-10-20 — IMO confirms 116 incidents and 24 seafarer deaths - Event type: casualty\_update - Confidence: high The IMO's register showed 116 confirmed incidents and 24 confirmed seafarer fatalities as at 20 October 2026; the IMO says around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped. **Source trail:** [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20`); [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways]() (`src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18`) ## Visual essay ### Gallery image 01 #### Visual provenance - Caption: A ship navigation view from Qeshm to Bandar-Abbas, Iran, by Petr Adam Dohnálek. The image illustrates the maritime corridor near the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. and Iranian claims over passage have collided. - Alt text: Photograph of ship navigation from Qeshm to Bandar-Abbas, Iran. - Credit: Petr Adam Dohnálek - Rights / license: CC BY-SA 3.0 cz - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ## Linked visual references ### How much oil is going through Hormuz? How data doesn't match US claims - Photographer: Al Jazeera Staff - Publisher: Al Jazeera - Recognition: Core data-dispute reporting for this crisis - Why it matters: It examines the disputed oil-flow data behind the 18 million-barrel escort claim. - Original: [Open reference]() ### Trump statement on Strait of Hormuz demining and warning to Iran - Photographer: Reuters Staff - Publisher: Reuters - Recognition: Core statement-reporting for the Hormuz standoff - Why it matters: It documents a key U.S. claim about the strait's status. - Original: [Open reference]() ## Media desk ### SS Middleton during Operation Earnest Will DN-SN-88-10144.jpg - Publisher: U.S. Navy - Media type: photo - Rights mode: direct\_image - Placement: The blockade, then and now - Caption: SS Middleton during Operation Earnest Will, photographed by PHCS Mitchell, USN. - Why it matters: Operation Earnest Will was a 1980s U.S. naval escort operation in the Persian Gulf, a historical parallel to the 2026 escort mission. The image shows SS Middleton during Operation Earnest Will, a U.S. Navy operation that escorted tankers in the Persian Gulf in the 1980s. The 2026 US escort that US officials say took 40 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz echoes that earlier mission. This historical photograph provides context for the April 2026 blockade description without asserting equivalence. - Original: [Open media record]() #### Visual provenance - Caption: SS Middleton during Operation Earnest Will, photographed by PHCS Mitchell, USN. - Alt text: SS Middleton during Operation Earnest Will, photographed by PHCS Mitchell, USN. - Credit: PHCS Mitchell, USN - Rights / license: Public domain - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Fact-checking US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz - Publisher: AP News - Media type: report\_pdf - Rights mode: linked\_reference\_only - Placement: How much oil is moving, and whose count to trust - Caption: AP fact-check of U.S. and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. - Why it matters: It separates competing control claims from verifiable facts. AP News fact-checks the competing U.S. and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. The dossier notes that the United States has claimed the strait is open or under U.S. control, while Iran has claimed it controls the strait and restricts passage to pre-approved vessels. This source helps readers assess those claims against reported facts. - Original: [Open media record]() #### Visual provenance - Caption: AP fact-check of U.S. and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. - Alt text: AP fact-check of U.S. and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf - Publisher: International Maritime Organization - Media type: report\_pdf - Rights mode: linked\_reference\_only - Placement: The ships and seafarers who cannot leave - Caption: IMO statement on ships and seafarers unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely. - Why it matters: It gives the IMO's estimate of up to 400 ships and around 6,000 seafarers unable to leave the Persian Gulf safely, as of 28 August 2026. The International Maritime Organization reported that as of August 28, 2026, up to 400 ships carrying around 6,000 seafarers had been unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely since the conflict began. This statement grounds the dossier's section on the queue at the Gulf and the shipping risks that remain. - Original: [Open media record]() #### Visual provenance - Caption: IMO statement on ships and seafarers unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely. - Alt text: IMO statement on ships and seafarers unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ## Source readings ### Competing control claims leave the strait's status unresolved - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-apnews-com` - Publisher: apnews.com - Source type: news - Registry title: Fact-checking US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: A fact-check of competing claims; read it for the framing of the control dispute, not for figures. - Original: [Open source]() AP sets US and Iranian statements about the strait against the available record. This AP fact-check examines competing statements by the United States and Iran about who controls the Strait of Hormuz and whether it is open to shipping. The dossier uses it for the shape of the dispute. Figures on traffic, attacks and seafarers come from the IMO, UKMTO, JMIC and the analytics firm Kpler. #### Takeaways - The control dispute is a contest of statements; treat each side's claim as its own. - Use the maritime monitors, not either party, for traffic and attack figures. #### Visual provenance - Caption: AP fact-checks US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. - Alt text: AP fact-checks US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Trump says the strait has been demined and warns Iran - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-reuters-com` - Publisher: reuters.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-08-25 - Registry title: Trump statement on Strait of Hormuz demining and warning to Iran - Editorial note: A presidential statement about mine clearance; not an operational assessment. - Original: [Open source]() Reuters reports President Trump's claim that the strait has been demined. Reuters reported on 25 August 2026 that President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz had been demined and warned Iran not to plant more mines. The report records a presidential statement; it is not an operational assessment of mine clearance. Mines remained part of the dispute in October: when the container ship GFS Pride was struck on 13 October and sank the next day, Iran said it had hit a mine, while the US military said it was struck by an IRGC projectile. #### Takeaways - President Trump said on 25 August 2026 that the strait had been demined — a political statement. - A presidential statement, not an operational assessment of mine clearance. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Reuters reports Trump statement on Hormuz demining and warning to Iran. - Alt text: Reuters reports Trump statement on Hormuz demining and warning to Iran. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### The biggest escort yet, by the US count - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-timesnownews-com` - Publisher: timesnownews.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-03 - Registry title: US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels through Hormuz - Editorial note: A secondary report of the 1 September escort figures; the original is CNN, citing US officials. - Original: [Open source]() Times Now relays the 40-ship, 18-million-barrel escort reported by US officials. Times Now reported on 3 September 2026 that the United States had carried out its biggest escort through the Strait of Hormuz yet, with 40 ships carrying 18 million barrels of oil. The figures come from US officials, as first reported by CNN. Independent tracking counted far fewer crossings that day: the analytics firm Kpler counted 11 vessels on 1 September and a 10-day average of 13 a day, according to Al Jazeera. #### Takeaways - The 40 ships and 18 million barrels are US officials' figures. - Kpler counted 11 crossings on the same day. - Use CNN for the original attribution. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Times Now News reports US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels. - Alt text: Times Now News reports US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Rights group alleges war crimes in drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-amnesty-org` - Publisher: amnesty.org - Source type: human\_rights - Published: 2026-06-18 - Registry title: Amnesty International research on drone strikes in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia - Editorial note: Rights research with legal allegations; the conclusions are Amnesty's. - Original: [Open source]() Amnesty International alleges that deadly drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may constitute war crimes. Amnesty International published research on 18 June 2026 alleging that deadly drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may constitute war crimes. The legal characterization is Amnesty's own; this dossier reports it as an allegation. The research concerns two Iranian attacks in March 2026 and was published in June. It is not evidence for the September and October 2026 attacks around the strait, which are sourced to the IMO, UKMTO and news reports. #### Takeaways - Amnesty alleges possible war crimes in Iranian drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia (attacks in March 2026, research published in June). - The legal conclusion is Amnesty's, not a court's. - It predates the autumn escalation. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Amnesty research on drone strikes in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. - Alt text: Amnesty research on drone strikes in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Oil-flow figures don't match U.S. claims, Al Jazeera reports - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-03 - Registry title: Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims - Editorial note: A data check: the US escort claim set against Kpler's tracking. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera compares the US escort claim with independent tracking data. Al Jazeera reports that two US officials told CNN that 40 commercial ships carrying some 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US military escort on Tuesday, 1 September 2026, in what would be a new wartime record. According to the analytics firm Kpler, 6 vessels crossed on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and 5 on Monday, with a 10-day average of 13 a day. Before the war, around 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil are estimated to have passed each day. Iran says the strait remains under its control and is closed except to pre-approved vessels using its designated channels. #### Takeaways - US officials: 40 ships under escort on 1 September 2026. - Kpler: 11 crossings that day; 10-day average of 13 a day. - Iran: closed except to pre-approved vessels using its designated channels. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Al Jazeera examines disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims. - Alt text: Al Jazeera examines disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### IMO reports up to 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers unable to depart safely - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org` - Publisher: imo.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-08-28 - Registry title: IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf - Editorial note: The IMO's 400-ship, 6,000-seafarer estimate; no later IMO ship count was found in the sources reviewed. - Original: [Open source]() The IMO Secretary-General's 28 August statement marks six months of uncertainty for seafarers. The IMO Secretary-General said on 28 August 2026 that, while some ships and their crews had been able to leave the Persian Gulf, up to 400 ships carrying around 6,000 seafarers had been unable to depart safely since the conflict began. The figure is an IMO estimate. The earliest statement of the 6,000 figure among the sources reviewed is the Secretary-General's July update to the Council, and he repeated it in October; no later IMO ship count was found in the sources reviewed. #### Takeaways - Up to 400 ships and around 6,000 seafarers unable to depart safely, as of 28 August 2026. - An IMO estimate, not a vessel-by-vessel count. - No later IMO ship count was found in the sources reviewed. #### Visual provenance - Caption: IMO reports up to 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers unable to depart safely. - Alt text: IMO reports up to 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers unable to depart safely. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Tanker attacks and reduced traffic strain Hormuz, Aug 30–Sep 1 - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-maritimenews-com` - Publisher: maritimenews.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-02 - Registry title: Late-August tanker attacks and traffic slump in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: Incident-level reporting from a maritime news aggregator for 30 August to 1 September; use with the official monitors. - Original: [Open source]() Maritime News reports acute operational strain in the strait from Aug 30 to Sep 1, 2026, with tanker attacks and limited traffic. Maritime News reports that from 30 August to 1 September 2026 the Strait of Hormuz continued to experience acute operational strain, with an outbound tanker east of Khasab reporting being struck by three unidentified projectiles, without casualties or pollution. The report is an aggregator's incident summary. The official counts of attacks come from the IMO and UKMTO. #### Takeaways - An outbound tanker east of Khasab reported projectile strikes, 30 August–1 September 2026. - No casualties or pollution reported in that incident. - Aggregator reporting; use the IMO and UKMTO for counts. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Maritime News reports late-August tanker attacks and traffic slump in Hormuz. - Alt text: Maritime News reports late-August tanker attacks and traffic slump in Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Amnesty alleges unlawful US strike killed over 100 children in Minab - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-amnesty-org-2` - Publisher: amnesty.org - Source type: human\_rights - Published: 2026-03-16 - Registry title: Amnesty International statement alleging a deadly US strike on a school in Minab - Editorial note: An advocacy statement with casualty and legal allegations; read it as Amnesty's position. - Original: [Open source]() Amnesty International calls for accountability over a reported US strike on a school in Minab. This Amnesty International statement from March 2026 alleges that a US strike on a school in Minab killed more than 100 children and calls for those responsible to be held accountable. The casualty figure and the finding of unlawfulness are Amnesty's. The statement concerns the opening weeks of the war and is kept apart from the shipping figures in this dossier. #### Takeaways - Amnesty alleges a US strike on a school in Minab killed over 100 children (March 2026). - Casualty and legal claims are Amnesty's own. - Not a source for the shipping or strait-control figures. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Amnesty alleges deadly US strike on a school in Minab. - Alt text: Amnesty alleges deadly US strike on a school in Minab. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### April 2026: U.S. framed Hormuz action as blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait itself - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org` - Publisher: opiniojuris.org - Source type: research - Published: 2026-06-11 - Registry title: A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports - Editorial note: A legal analysis of the April 2026 US announcement; its April characterization predates the September escort and shipping-risk claims. - Original: [Open source]() A legal analysis examines how CENTCOM restated the announced 'quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition' within a day, narrowing its stated scope. On 12 April 2026, following the collapse of the Islamabad talks, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States Navy would impose a 'quotation omitted from the machine-readable edition'. Within twenty-four hours, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) restated the operation in markedly narrower terms. CENTCOM's restatement described a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas rather than of the strait itself, with traffic to and from non-Iranian ports excluded from the stated enforcement scope. The blockade was reimposed in mid-July and remained enforced near the approaches to Iranian ports in October, according to CENTCOM and JMIC. #### Takeaways - The April 2026 blockade was restated as a blockade of Iranian ports and coasts, not the strait. - Traffic to and from non-Iranian ports was excluded from enforcement. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Opinio Juris analyzes CENTCOM's April 2026 carve-out for non-Iranian ports. - Alt text: Opinio Juris analyzes CENTCOM's April 2026 carve-out for non-Iranian ports. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### A legal framework for belligerent regulation of strait navigation, with Iran’s Hormuz measures as a case study - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-digital-commons-usnwc-edu` - Publisher: digital-commons.usnwc.edu - Source type: research - Registry title: Belligerent Straits: Legal Measures for Regulating Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: Legal research on belligerent measures in international straits; not a factual account of current control. - Original: [Open source]() A Naval War College study of what belligerents may do to regulate shipping through international straits, with Iran's Hormuz measures as a case study. This Naval War College study examines what measures belligerents may take to regulate navigation by neutral and belligerent shipping through international straits, with Iran's measures in the Strait of Hormuz, including tolls and designated arrangements, as a case study. It offers a legal lens for the competing US and Iranian claims; it does not establish who controls the strait or how many ships pass. #### Takeaways - A legal framework for belligerent regulation of strait navigation. - Iran's Hormuz measures are its case study. - Not a source for current traffic or control. #### Visual provenance - Caption: US Naval War College article on legal measures for Hormuz navigation. - Alt text: US Naval War College article on legal measures for Hormuz navigation. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### UN Security Council speakers condemn use of the Strait of Hormuz as a 'bargaining chip' and demand restored navigation - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-press-un-org` - Publisher: press.un.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-04-27 - Registry title: Security Council Speakers Urge Immediate Restoration of Freedom of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: UN meeting coverage of 27 April 2026; it records speakers' calls, not a determination of control. - Original: [Open source]() Security Council speakers call for freedom of navigation to be restored. The UN's meeting coverage of 27 April 2026 records the Security Council hearing urgent calls to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning that disruptions since early March had struck at global energy and food security. Speakers condemned the use of the waterway as a 'bargaining chip'. The coverage records positions; it does not resolve the competing US and Iranian claims. #### Takeaways - Security Council speakers urged immediate restoration of freedom of navigation (27 April 2026). - The Secretary-General dated the disruptions to early March. - Meeting coverage records positions, not control. #### Visual provenance - Caption: UN Security Council speakers urge restoration of freedom of navigation in Hormuz. - Alt text: UN Security Council speakers urge restoration of freedom of navigation in Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Early September 2026: U.S.-Iran exchanges resume, with reported regional attacks and renewed Hormuz tension - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-parsi-euronews-com` - Publisher: parsi.euronews.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-06 - Registry title: Tehran and Washington Return to a Cycle of Tension in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: A Persian-language report of 6 September; the IRGC's targeting claim is its own. - Original: [Open source]() A Persian-language Euronews report from September 6, 2026 covers renewed U.S.-Iran tension in the Strait of Hormuz and an IRGC claim of targeting vessels. This Persian-language Euronews report of 6 September 2026 covers a return to tension between Tehran and Washington in the Strait of Hormuz, after the United States targeted Iranian tankers and Iran struck back. Its headline carries an IRGC claim of targeting three oil tankers and three US-affiliated vessels. The claim is the IRGC's and is not independently confirmed. #### Takeaways - Renewed US–Iran exchanges around the strait on 5–6 September 2026. - The IRGC claims it targeted three tankers and three US-affiliated vessels. - A party claim, not a verified count. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Euronews Persian reports Tehran-Washington tension cycle in Hormuz. - Alt text: Euronews Persian reports Tehran-Washington tension cycle in Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims vessel strikes in the Strait - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-news` - Publisher: iranintl.news - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-05 - Registry title: IRGC Navy Claims Strikes on Tankers and US-Affiliated Vessels - Editorial note: Persian-language report of an IRGC claim; the target count is the IRGC's and is not independently confirmed. - Original: [Open source]() A Persian-language report carries an IRGC navy statement of attacks on tankers and US-linked vessels amid competing control claims. The report relays an IRGC navy announcement that, in response to a US attack on three Iranian tankers on the morning of 5 September 2026, it targeted three tankers on an 'unauthorized' route in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-affiliated vessels in other areas. The claim is an Iranian military statement and is not independently confirmed. Official incident counts come from the IMO and UKMTO. The claim belongs to the early-September exchanges in which, by Al Jazeera's account, the United States targeted three Iranian tankers and Iran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile toward US warships. #### Takeaways - The IRGC navy claims strikes on three tankers and three US-affiliated vessels. - Not independently confirmed. - Use the IMO and UKMTO for confirmed incidents. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Iran International reports IRGC Navy claims strikes on tankers and US-affiliated vessels. - Alt text: Iran International reports IRGC Navy claims strikes on tankers and US-affiliated vessels. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Iran's military command says it controls the strait - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-khabaronline-ir` - Publisher: khabaronline.ir - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-04-08 - Registry title: Iranian Armed Forces Statement on Managing the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: An April 2026 statement of Iran's armed forces; an official claim of control, not a description of September or October. - Original: [Open source]() A statement from Iran's armed forces general staff and Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, April 2026. This statement, published on 8 April 2026, from Iran's armed forces general staff and the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters claims that Iran manages and intelligently controls the Strait of Hormuz. It is an official Iranian position from the spring. Iran restated the claim in the autumn: its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said in October that the strait is under Iran's control. #### Takeaways - An official Iranian claim of control, dated 8 April 2026. - A party position, not an established fact. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Iranian Armed Forces statement on managing the Strait of Hormuz. - Alt text: Iranian Armed Forces statement on managing the Strait of Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### Reciprocal strikes reported as US-Iran naval tension continues - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-rfi-fr` - Publisher: rfi.fr - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-06 - Registry title: RFI Report on Reciprocal Vessel Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: International news report on reciprocal attacks; specific target claims in it are not independently verified. - Original: [Open source]() RFI reports Iranian state TV's claim of an attack on a US unmanned vessel, hours after another incident, amid broader shipping risks. RFI's Persian service reported on 6 September 2026 a reciprocal pattern of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian state television claiming that IRGC forces had targeted a US unmanned military vessel. The specific target claim is not independently confirmed. It belongs to the early-September exchanges of strikes on tankers. #### Takeaways - Iranian state TV claimed an IRGC strike on a US unmanned vessel (6 September 2026). - Not independently confirmed. - Part of the early-September exchanges. #### Visual provenance - Caption: RFI reports reciprocal vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. - Alt text: RFI reports reciprocal vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### US naval blockade's reported effect on Iranian oil exports - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-news-2` - Publisher: iranintl.news - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-01 - Registry title: Iran International Cites Reuters on US Naval Blockade and Iranian Oil Exports - Editorial note: A report relaying Reuters on the blockade's effect on Iranian oil exports, with Vortexa and Kpler tracking estimates. - Original: [Open source]() A Persian-language outlet cites Reuters on the US naval blockade's effect on Iranian oil exports. The report, citing Reuters, says the US naval blockade had almost stopped Iranian oil exports by the start of September 2026. Vortexa and Kpler estimates put Iran's loadings of crude and condensate at only about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels a day in August, against about 740,000 barrels a day in July. A Kpler analyst told Reuters that the fall in exports could push Tehran to print more money to cover its costs, adding to inflationary pressure. The figures are tracking estimates relayed by Reuters, not Iranian official data. #### Takeaways - Reuters, relayed: the blockade had almost stopped Iranian oil exports by 1 September 2026. - Vortexa and Kpler: about 220,000–255,000 barrels a day of loadings in August, against about 740,000 in July. - Tracking estimates, not Iranian official data. #### Visual provenance - Caption: Iran International cites Reuters on US naval blockade and Iranian oil exports. - Alt text: Iran International cites Reuters on US naval blockade and Iranian oil exports. - Credit: Totally Fine Foundation - Rights / license: Project editorial graphic; original source(s) linked - Asset: [View image]() - Original / provenance: [Open source]() ### A wartime high, by the US count. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02` - Publisher: cnn.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-02 - Registry title: 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz - Editorial note: The original report of the 40-ship, 18-million-barrel escort; the figures come from US officials. - Original: [Open source]() CNN, citing US officials, reports the largest escort of the war and gives a pre-war baseline. CNN reports that the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a wartime high, as Iran and the United States exchanged a new round of strikes. The figures were given by US officials. CNN adds that before the war began, just over six months earlier, roughly 20 million barrels a day were passing through the strait. According to a US official familiar with the operation, most if not all of the 40 vessels turned off their transponders to avoid detection; the escort figure is a US claim. #### Takeaways - 40 vessels and 18 million barrels under US escort, per US officials. - Pre-war flow: roughly 20 million barrels a day, per CNN. - A US claim, not an independent count. ### The tanker war escalates. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-06` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-06 - Registry title: US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed? - Editorial note: News account of the early-September exchanges; attacks are as claimed by each side. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera reports a new round of tit-for-tat attacks around the strait in early September. Al Jazeera reports that the United States and Iran escalated tit-for-tat attacks in the 24 hours to 6 September 2026, with Washington targeting three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic missile toward US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera calls it a tanker war; an analyst it quotes says the renewed exchanges of strikes mark an escalation, and the report says they further dim hopes for a de-escalation through diplomacy. Claims of hits by each side are attributed to that side. #### Takeaways - The US targeted three Iranian tankers; Iran hit tankers and fired at US warships. - Al Jazeera describes the early-September exchanges as an escalation that dims hopes for diplomacy. - Each side's claims are its own. ### Five tankers, ten ships, a base in Jordan. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-09` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-09 - Registry title: US strikes five Iranian oil tankers, as Iran attacks 10 ships, Jordan base - Editorial note: Competing claims of strikes; neither count is independently verified in the report. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera records a sharp escalation in the second week of September. Al Jazeera reports that Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after CENTCOM announced it had struck and destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, accusing Tehran of launching ballistic missiles at a US warship. Iran also fired missiles at US forces stationed at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan. The counts of ships and tankers are the parties' own claims. #### Takeaways - CENTCOM said it struck and destroyed five Iranian oil tankers; Iran said it attacked 10 ships. - Iran fired missiles at US forces at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan. - Party claims, attributed. ### Eighty verified attacks. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-sg-2026-09-16` - Publisher: imo.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-09-16 - Registry title: Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States - Editorial note: IMO's verified attack count at mid-September. - Original: [Open source]() The IMO Secretary-General gives the verified count of attacks on merchant ships in mid-September. The IMO Secretary-General said on 16 September 2026 that the organization had verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in at least 22 deaths of seafarers. The statement is an appeal to stop attacking ships and seafarers. Its count is IMO-verified and therefore a minimum; UKMTO later said most targeted vessels do not report attacks. #### Takeaways - 80 attacks on merchant vessels verified by 16 September 2026. - At least 22 seafarers killed by then. - A verified minimum. ### A seven-day plan, rejected. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-npr-2026-09-26` - Publisher: kuow.org (NPR) - Source type: news - Published: 2026-09-26 - Registry title: Trump calls Iranian plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz not 'acceptable' - Editorial note: News report of a proposal and its rejection; the plan's terms are as described by the parties. - Original: [Open source]() NPR reports an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait and President Trump's rejection of it. NPR reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Friday that Iran had conveyed to the United States, through Qatar, a concrete seven-day plan to reopen the strait. President Trump said on Saturday that he was rejecting the plan. The report does not publish the plan's terms. #### Takeaways - Iran conveyed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait through Qatar. - President Trump rejected it the next day. - Araghchi: the strait can be reopened within seven days if the necessary conditions are met. ### Closed until seven conditions are met. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-04 - Registry title: Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions - Editorial note: An Iranian official position, reported by Al Jazeera. - Original: [Open source]() Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf ties reopening the strait to Iran's conditions. Al Jazeera reports that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran's seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met, adding that the era of dictating unilateral demands is over. The statement is an Iranian position on the terms for reopening. It followed reports that Washington had made proposals through a mediator. #### Takeaways - Iran says the strait will stay closed until its seven conditions are met. - The conditions are linked to the Islamabad memorandum. - A party position, attributed. ### The worst week since the war began. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-11 - Registry title: Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall - Editorial note: News report; CENTCOM's blockade figures are US military claims. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera reports a record week of attacks and CENTCOM's blockade tally. Al Jazeera reports that at least a dozen ships were attacked over the week ending on 5 October 2026, the highest number since the war began; at least one was hit off the north coast of Qatar. Since the United States reimposed the blockade in mid-July, CENTCOM says its forces have disabled four commercial vessels, turned around 135 ships and destroyed 10 tankers linked with Iran. Washington says Tehran has exported no oil through the blockade line. #### Takeaways - At least 12 ships attacked in the week to 5 October 2026, a wartime high. - The US blockade was reimposed in mid-July. - CENTCOM: four vessels disabled, 135 turned around, 10 Iran-linked tankers destroyed — US claims. ### Nineteen million barrels, by CENTCOM's count. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-2026-10-13` - Publisher: iranintl.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-13 - Registry title: CENTCOM says US helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz Monday - Editorial note: Relays a CENTCOM statement; the volume is a US military claim. - Original: [Open source]() Iran International relays CENTCOM's statement that US forces helped move more than 19 million barrels through the strait on 12 October. Iran International reports that US Central Command said on Tuesday that US forces had assisted Persian Gulf partners in shipping more than 19 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, 12 October 2026. The figure is CENTCOM's and covers a single day; the article gives no independent measurement. Kpler's daily figures, as reported by Al Jazeera, were 2.9 million barrels on 11 October and nearly 20.8 million on 8 October. #### Takeaways - CENTCOM: more than 19 million barrels moved through the strait on 12 October 2026. - A US military claim. - Kpler's daily figures, reported by Al Jazeera, swung from nearly 20.8 million barrels (8 October) to 2.9 million (11 October). ### From 20.8 million barrels to 2.9 million in three days. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-14 - Registry title: Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again - Editorial note: Carries Kpler's daily flow data and Iranian claims of control. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera, citing Kpler, shows how sharply daily oil flows swing with the attacks. According to Kpler, as reported by Al Jazeera, only 2.9 million barrels of oil were carried through the strait on 11 October 2026, the lowest level of the month, after nearly 20.8 million barrels passed through on 8 October. Kpler puts the pre-war average at 17.1 million barrels a day. The report quotes Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, saying the strait is under Iran's control and that Iran manages it, and claiming that Iran has been striking vessels in a US-backed shuttle system nightly for weeks. #### Takeaways - Kpler: 20.8 million barrels on 8 October, 2.9 million on 11 October 2026. - Kpler's pre-war baseline is 17.1 million barrels a day. - Iran's security chief claims control of the strait. ### Flows recover to 10.9 mb/d in September. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iea-omr-2026-10` - Publisher: iea.org - Source type: research - Published: 2026-10-14 - Registry title: Oil Market Report - October 2026 - Editorial note: Monthly market analysis; flow and price figures are IEA estimates. - Original: [Open source]() The IEA's October report measures Hormuz flows and prices for September. The IEA reports that robust Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers helped lift total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by 3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d in September 2026, and that crude exports from Gulf producers reached over 75 per cent of pre-war levels. It reports that North Sea Dated crude rose by $26.17 a barrel month on month to $116.89 a barrel in September amid renewed Middle East hostilities. #### Takeaways - Hormuz oil flows: 10.9 mb/d in September 2026, per the IEA. - North Sea Dated averaged $116.89 a barrel in September. - IEA estimates, monthly. ### About 400 ships by the US count; most attacks unreported, says UKMTO. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16` - Publisher: gcaptain.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-16 - Registry title: Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported - Editorial note: Carries both CENTCOM's claims and UKMTO's caveat on unreported attacks. - Original: [Open source]() gCaptain sets CENTCOM's claim of control against UKMTO's warning about missing reports. gCaptain reports that Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said in a video statement that the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and its regional partners, not Iran, and remains open for business. He said approximately 400 merchant ships had transited the strait over the preceding seven days. In its weekly overview, UKMTO said it was struggling to establish the true number of attacks because the majority of vessels targeted are refusing to submit reports. #### Takeaways - CENTCOM claims about 400 merchant transits in the seven days before 16 October 2026, without giving dates. - CENTCOM says the strait is controlled by the US and partners. - UKMTO: most targeted vessels do not report attacks. ### 254 combined transits, 42 visible on AIS. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16` - Publisher: ukmto.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-10-16 - Registry title: UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026 - Editorial note: Official maritime security reporting; US-sourced transit figures cannot be independently verified by UKMTO. - Original: [Open source]() UKMTO's weekly overview counts transits and incidents, and flags what it cannot verify. UKMTO's weekly overview of 16 October 2026 gives combined transits of 125 outbound and 129 inbound that week, about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels. AIS-observed transits fell to 42, while US-stated facilitated transits were roughly level, at about five to one. It counts 84 incidents reported to UKMTO in the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February. UKMTO notes that its figures come from AIS data except the US-facilitated transit figures, which are sourced separately, include vessels not broadcasting on AIS and cannot be independently verified by UKMTO. #### Takeaways - 254 combined transits in the week, about 70% below pre-conflict levels — most of them US-stated. - Only 42 transits were visible on AIS; US-stated transits outnumbered them about five to one. - US-facilitated transit figures cannot be independently verified by UKMTO. ### Threat level: severe. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105` - Publisher: ukmto.org (JMIC) - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-10-15 - Registry title: JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026 - Editorial note: Joint Maritime Information Center threat assessment; anchorage counts measure congestion, not stranded ships. - Original: [Open source]() JMIC keeps the threat level in the strait at SEVERE and records the US blockade still enforced. The Joint Maritime Information Center's update of 15 October 2026 says that, due to recent Iranian attacks, the threat level remains SEVERE, with deliberate hostile action considered highly likely. It reports the US naval blockade still enforced, with monitoring, hailing and verification queries near the approaches to Iranian ports. JMIC counts approximately 180 vessels at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, 178 off Dubai and Jebel Ali to Ras Al Khaimah, and 74 off Musandam and Sohar as of 15 October. It gives a 2025 baseline of about 138 vessels a day. #### Takeaways - Threat level SEVERE as of 15 October 2026. - The US naval blockade remains enforced near Iranian ports. - About 432 vessels at three anchorage areas — a congestion count. ### Two claims of control; Kpler's flow at 68 per cent of pre-war. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17` - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-17 - Registry title: US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels - Editorial note: Carries Kpler's weekly flow data and UKMTO's weekly attack count. - Original: [Open source]() Al Jazeera sets the competing control claims against Kpler and UKMTO data. Al Jazeera reports that at least 12 ships were attacked in the week ending on 16 October 2026, according to UKMTO, and that oil flows through Hormuz averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the seven days to 13 October, about 68 per cent of Kpler's 17.1 million bpd pre-war baseline. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May. The US military said the container ship GFS Pride was hit by an IRGC projectile, not by a mine as Iran had claimed. #### Takeaways - At least 12 ships attacked in the week to 16 October 2026, per UKMTO. - Kpler: 11.6 million bpd in the week to 13 October, about 68% of pre-war. - GFS Pride: the US says an IRGC projectile; Iran said a mine. ### Still around 6,000 trapped. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18` - Publisher: foxnews.com - Source type: news - Published: 2026-10-18 - Registry title: 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways - Editorial note: News report of the IMO Secretary-General's remarks and IMO incident counts. - Original: [Open source]() The IMO Secretary-General warns of a double blockade and mounting attacks. Fox News reports that the IMO Secretary-General said seafarers have continued to perish in attacks and that around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped since the beginning of the conflict, adding that there is a double blockade and that too many vessels have been attacked, particularly in recent days. The report says the IMO had recorded 100 confirmed maritime incidents across the region as of 9 October, with 24 seafarers killed since the conflict began on 28 February. #### Takeaways - IMO chief: around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped (18 October 2026). - IMO: 100 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarers killed as of 9 October. - The conflict began on 28 February 2026. ### 116 confirmed incidents, 24 seafarers dead. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20` - Publisher: imo.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-10-20 - Registry title: Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents - Editorial note: IMO's running register of confirmed incidents; a confirmed minimum. - Original: [Open source]() The IMO's incident register gives the confirmed count and lists each vessel. The IMO's register of incidents in the region records 116 confirmed incidents and 24 confirmed seafarer fatalities as at 20 October 2026, with an entry for each vessel. Among the October entries, the container ship GFS PRIDE is listed with an incident date of 13 October and the status 'sunk'; JMIC dates the sinking to 14 October. The register counts only incidents the IMO has confirmed. #### Takeaways - 116 confirmed incidents as at 20 October 2026. - 24 confirmed seafarer fatalities. - GFS PRIDE: incident on 13 October, listed as sunk; it went down on 14 October, per JMIC. ### An evacuation plan on pause. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20` - Publisher: imo.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-10-20 - Registry title: IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026) - Editorial note: IMO's overview page; the evacuation plan and seafarer figures are IMO's. - Original: [Open source]() The IMO says it is monitoring more than 20,000 seafarers in the region and that its evacuation plan is paused. The IMO says it is closely monitoring developments to protect more than 20,000 seafarers in the region, including those stranded on vessels. It has prepared an evacuation plan, at the direction of the IMO Council and with Member States and industry, to safely evacuate around 6,000 seafarers from the region. The evacuation plan is currently paused. #### Takeaways - IMO is monitoring more than 20,000 seafarers in the region. - Its plan to evacuate around 6,000 seafarers is paused. - IMO figures, as at 20 October 2026. ### Where the 6,000 figure comes from. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-council-137` - Publisher: imo.org - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-07-08 - Registry title: Update to the Council (C 137) - Protection of vital shipping lanes - Editorial note: The earliest statement of the IMO's 6,000 figure found in the sources reviewed, with the June evacuation count. - Original: [Open source]() In July the IMO Secretary-General reported the evacuation so far and the seafarers still trapped. The IMO Secretary-General told the Council that, within the time of operation of the evacuation framework, 136 vessels with a total of 2,900 seafarers were successfully evacuated through two alternative routes. He said approximately 6,000 seafarers remained trapped in the region and that he was still seeking guarantees that vessels could evacuate using the alternative routes. The IMO has repeated the 6,000 figure since, in August and October. #### Takeaways - 136 vessels and 2,900 seafarers evacuated under the IMO framework. - Approximately 6,000 seafarers remained trapped in July. - No later revision of the 6,000 figure was found in the sources reviewed. ### A pre-war baseline of 20.9 million barrels a day. - Registry ID: `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-eia-chokepoints` - Publisher: eia.gov - Source type: official\_position - Published: 2026-03-03 - Registry title: EIA: World Oil Transit Chokepoints - Editorial note: US government baseline for pre-war flows; other baselines (Kpler, CNN) differ. - Original: [Open source]() The EIA's chokepoint analysis gives the reference figure for pre-war Hormuz flows. The EIA reports that in the first half of 2025 total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 20 per cent of global petroleum liquids consumption. Other baselines differ: CNN cites roughly 20 million barrels a day before the war, and Kpler uses 17.1 million. Comparisons of wartime flows with pre-war levels depend on which baseline is used. #### Takeaways - Pre-war baseline: 20.9 million b/d in 1H 2025, per the EIA. - About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. - Baselines differ by source; name the one used. ## Analysis shelf ### A Blockade by the Book: Why CENTCOM’s Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports Matters - Publisher: opiniojuris.org - Type: report - Why it matters: Clarifies the April 2026 legal framing of the U.S. operation as a blockade of Iranian ports, not the Strait itself. - Position note: Legal analysis from Opinio Juris; covers April 2026 characterization only and does not assess September 2026 escort or shipping risks. - Original: [Open source]() ### Statement: Six months of uncertainty for seafarers in Strait of Hormuz - Publisher: imo.org - Type: official page - Why it matters: The IMO's estimate of up to 400 ships and around 6,000 seafarers unable to depart safely. - Position note: IMO official statement of 28 August 2026; no later IMO ship count was found in the sources reviewed. - Original: [Open source]() ### IMO: Confirmed incidents in the Middle East - Publisher: imo.org - Type: official page - Why it matters: The confirmed count of incidents and seafarer deaths, vessel by vessel: 116 and 24 as at 20 October 2026. - Position note: IMO's running register; confirmed incidents only. - Original: [Open source]() ### UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026 - Publisher: ukmto.org - Type: report - Why it matters: Weekly combined transits (254, of which 42 visible on AIS and the rest US-stated) and incidents reported since 28 February. - Position note: Official maritime security reporting; flags which transit figures it cannot verify. - Original: [Open source]() ## Media shelf ### How much oil is going through Hormuz? Why data doesn’t match US claims - Publisher: aljazeera.com - Type: media - Why it matters: Examines competing U.S. and Iranian control claims and oil flow data. - Position note: Linked reference from Al Jazeera; not hosted material; covers claims as of early September 2026. - Original: [Open source]() ### US Pulls Off Biggest Strait of Hormuz Escort Yet Amid Iran War: 40 Ships, 18 Million Barrels - Publisher: timesnownews.com - Type: media - Why it matters: Reports the 1 September 2026 escort figures attributed to U.S. officials. - Position note: Linked reference from Times Now; not hosted material; figures are U.S. official-reported and not independently verified. - Original: [Open source]() ### Strait of Hormuz tanker hits and traffic slump, late Aug 2026 - Publisher: maritimenews.com - Type: media - Why it matters: Documents operational and security risks in late August 2026. - Position note: Linked reference from Maritime News; not hosted material; covers late August 2026 only. - Original: [Open source]() ## Open questions - How many ships remain unable to leave the Persian Gulf? The IMO's estimate of up to 400 dates from 28 August. - Why do US transit and volume figures diverge so far from AIS-based counts by UKMTO and Kpler, and can the US-facilitated figures be verified? - Was the GFS Pride sunk by a mine, as the IRGC says, or by a projectile, as the US military says? JMIC reports that the mine claim has no substantiation. - Will the IMO's paused evacuation plan for around 6,000 seafarers resume? - What are Iran's seven conditions for reopening the strait, and will the messages exchanged through mediators lead to talks? - How many ships actually transit each day? US-stated, AIS-visible and independently tracked counts differ widely. ## Source registry - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-apnews-com` — [apnews.com — Fact-checking US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz](); news; date not supplied - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-reuters-com` — [reuters.com — Trump statement on Strait of Hormuz demining and warning to Iran](); news; 2026-08-25 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-timesnownews-com` — [timesnownews.com — US escort of 40 ships and 18 million barrels through Hormuz](); news; 2026-09-03 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-amnesty-org` — [amnesty.org — Amnesty International research on drone strikes in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia](); human\_rights; 2026-06-18 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-com` — [aljazeera.com — Disputed oil-flow data and competing Hormuz control claims](); news; 2026-09-03 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-org` — [imo.org — IMO statement on six months of seafarer uncertainty in the Persian Gulf](); official\_position; 2026-08-28 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-maritimenews-com` — [maritimenews.com — Late-August tanker attacks and traffic slump in the Strait of Hormuz](); news; 2026-09-02 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-amnesty-org-2` — [amnesty.org — Amnesty International statement alleging a deadly US strike on a school in Minab](); human\_rights; 2026-03-16 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-opiniojuris-org` — [opiniojuris.org — A Blockade by the Book: CENTCOM’s April 2026 Carve-Out for Non-Iranian Ports](); research; 2026-06-11 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-digital-commons-usnwc-edu` — [digital-commons.usnwc.edu — Belligerent Straits: Legal Measures for Regulating Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz](); research; date not supplied - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-press-un-org` — [press.un.org — Security Council Speakers Urge Immediate Restoration of Freedom of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz](); official\_position; 2026-04-27 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-parsi-euronews-com` — [parsi.euronews.com — Tehran and Washington Return to a Cycle of Tension in the Strait of Hormuz](); news; 2026-09-06 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-news` — [iranintl.news — IRGC Navy Claims Strikes on Tankers and US-Affiliated Vessels](); news; 2026-09-05 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-khabaronline-ir` — [khabaronline.ir — Iranian Armed Forces Statement on Managing the Strait of Hormuz](); official\_position; 2026-04-08 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-rfi-fr` — [rfi.fr — RFI Report on Reciprocal Vessel Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz](); news; 2026-09-06 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-news-2` — [iranintl.news — Iran International Cites Reuters on US Naval Blockade and Iranian Oil Exports](); news; 2026-09-01 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-cnn-2026-09-02` — [cnn.com — 60 targets struck, 18M barrels of oil protected: The US military’s record day in the Strait of Hormuz](); news; 2026-09-02 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-06` — [aljazeera.com — US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?](); news; 2026-09-06 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-09-09` — [aljazeera.com — US strikes five Iranian oil tankers, as Iran attacks 10 ships, Jordan base](); news; 2026-09-09 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-sg-2026-09-16` — [imo.org — Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States](); official\_position; 2026-09-16 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-npr-2026-09-26` — [kuow.org (NPR) — Trump calls Iranian plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz not 'acceptable'](); news; 2026-09-26 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-04` — [aljazeera.com — Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions](); news; 2026-10-04 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-11` — [aljazeera.com — Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall](); news; 2026-10-11 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iranintl-2026-10-13` — [iranintl.com — CENTCOM says US helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz Monday](); news; 2026-10-13 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-14` — [aljazeera.com — Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again](); news; 2026-10-14 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-iea-omr-2026-10` — [iea.org — Oil Market Report - October 2026](); research; 2026-10-14 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-gcaptain-2026-10-16` — [gcaptain.com — Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported](); news; 2026-10-16 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-ukmto-weekly-2026-10-16` — [ukmto.org — UKMTO weekly overview, 16 October 2026](); official\_position; 2026-10-16 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-jmic-update-105` — [ukmto.org (JMIC) — JMIC Advisory Note, Update 105, 15 October 2026](); official\_position; 2026-10-15 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-aljazeera-2026-10-17` — [aljazeera.com — US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels](); news; 2026-10-17 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-foxnews-2026-10-18` — [foxnews.com — 6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways](); news; 2026-10-18 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-incidents-2026-10-20` — [imo.org — Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents](); official\_position; 2026-10-20 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-hot-topic-2026-10-20` — [imo.org — IMO hot topic: Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz (as at 20 October 2026)](); official\_position; 2026-10-20 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-imo-council-137` — [imo.org — Update to the Council (C 137) - Protection of vital shipping lanes](); official\_position; 2026-07-08 - `src-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-2026-eia-chokepoints` — [eia.gov — EIA: World Oil Transit Chokepoints](); official\_position; 2026-03-03